Turkish Markets Analysis
As we get ready for Thanksgiving, what can we learn from turkeys? When are we turkeys? And I don’t mean turkey in the goofball way- but more in the “fed until head is chopped off” way.
§1: The Turkey Problem
Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan ” describes this problem (emphasis mine):
Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.
So to be a Turkey, you need a few elements:
A belief
The belief to be continually reinforced
An unexpected occurrence
Belief revision
§2: A Recent Turkey of Mine
There is no going around it- being a turkey sucks big time. However, at one point or another- we are all going to be a Turkey! And by that I do mean in both the goofball and the “fed until head is chopped off” way!
From what I have seen- the only way around this problem is to either
Leave the farm before the butcher comes or
Pray that there is an afterlife for turkeys
However, this presents a problem: How do you know that it is almost Thanksgiving and the butcher is coming?
I am not sure it is possible to really know when to shut something down. Recently, I have had to shut a few major projects down to focus down on what I really enjoy doing! Below is one recent turkey of mine.
I believed that I could start student-based venture capital fund
Every day I got feedback and tweaked the model, showing continuous progress that this could work
I came to the realization that this is not what I really wanted, and that this organization could not be structured to fit within my school
I revised my belief that I could start this, and decided to completely pivot my model
Have you been a Turkey recently? :)